Shanghai natural rubber main contract 1201 continued to rebound, the highest hit a high of nearly $35260 / ton in nearly 3 months, and in one fell swoop broke through the $34000 / ton -35000 yuan / ton of important resistance.
Demand stimulation
In the first half of this year, China's automobile production and sales growth slowed down, the market light. According to the China Automobile Industry Association statistics, in May the domestic automobile production and sales were 1 million 348 thousand and 900 and 1 million 382 thousand and 800. And from January to May, automobile production and sales were 7 million 779 thousand and 700 and 7 million 916 thousand and 200, an increase of 3.19% and 4.06%, an increase over the same period last year fell by 52.4% and 49.19%.
The industry generally believe that the downturn caused by automobile production and sales is the main reason in various countries will Car Buying phasing out of preferential policies, making it for the first time to buy a car or a consumer wants to replace the new consumer enthusiasm have been hit. The continued rise in gasoline, diesel prices, but also to curb the desire of consumers to buy cars.
At the end of 6, in a series of unfavorable factors, natural rubber 1201 contract was dip to 31000 yuan / ton, gradually to the lows of the year 29800 yuan / ton approximation.
But at the beginning of last week, there are reports that the country is likely to re introduce policies to encourage the purchase of cars to curb excessive car consumption trend. In this positive stimulus, on Monday, Shanghai natural rubber futures prices rose in full swing, of which 1201 of the main contract rose more than 4%.
The analysis of Beijing interim analyst Mianan, China in recent years, rubber consumption remained at a level more than 3 million tons, of which the 70%-80% is used for the production of automotive tires, if car sales to rise, then the positive trend of rubber will be direct. From the recent performance of the market, the futures market or the introduction of new policies to high expectations.
In addition, it is worth noting that, when the new car tire demand growth has declined, while the explosive growth in demand for new cars over the past 2 years to promote a substantial increase in car ownership market. In general, 1-2 years after the new car sales, tire replacement demand will be a large number of emerging. The explosive growth in demand for new tires will be transformed into the explosive growth of the market demand.
As long as the production and sales of cars does not appear more than 10% decline in the last two years, China's automobile market demand for tires will remain in the stage of rigid growth.
International Rubber Study Group (IRSG) released the latest report is expected in 2011, the global natural rubber demand will grow 3.8%, 2011 global natural rubber production will increase by 5.6%.
Price upside down period
At the end of June, Shanghai rubber futures 1201 contract price remained at 30750 yuan / ton -33860 yuan / ton, while the domestic production spot price was 33200 yuan / ton -34600 yuan / ton, rubber futures price is lower than the domestic spot market price in premium condition. While the international market, 20 adhesive spot price of 440 cents / kg -445 cents / kg, while the import tax payment cost about 34120 yuan / ton -34510 yuan / ton, also higher than the domestic natural rubber futures and spot prices. Because the rubber futures prices lower than the spot price, the price is higher than the domestic and imported natural rubber futures and spot market prices, a large number of domestic manufacturers to give up spot in the spot market to buy a large number of natural rubber, to enter the futures market, futures contracts to hedge buy or prepare for future delivery, which limits the futures prices down further to a great extent and gradually improve the futures price.
At present, the Shanghai futures exchange rubber positions remain at the level of about 300 thousand hands, high in the past year, indicating that a large number of funds have entered the futures market to do more natural rubber. To July 8th, the Shanghai futures exchange rubber delivery warehouse can be used for delivery of natural rubber for 7945 hands, is still at a low level. Multi scale admission, whether there is sufficient space for the delivery of resistance, it is expected.